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#1 | RE: Trade of the Century datum

Sun May 05, 2019 4:57 pm

We have all read about Armstrong's trade of the century statement. Apparently Nigel Farage had mentioned it at the ROME WEC. He stated it was the collapse of the Euro. I assumed it was the rise of US equities (DOW). I know MA states that both are linked, but for profit maybe shorting the EURO vs. USD is the best trade? Some people on twitter - that attended ROME - have referenced this as well.

https://ibb.co/2dsF9gS

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#2 | RE: Trade of the Century datum

Mon May 06, 2019 4:42 am

I won't doubt their answers. For me the trade of the century is long USDHKD with a stop beyond the range of the peg. Long-ing this pair gives +ve interest everyday and the central bank virtually guarantee that your stop loss won't be hit.

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#3 | RE: Trade of the Century datum

Mon May 06, 2019 9:19 pm

Zitat von PSP

I assumed it was the rise of US equities (DOW). I know MA states that both are linked, but for profit maybe shorting the EURO vs. USD is the best trade? Some people on twitter - that attended ROME - have referenced this as well.

In the Euro we had 3 relatively sharp moves down with -20% in the last 10 years. First move took about 3 month, the second 4 month and the third about 8 month.
As far as I know Marty said that the Euro could go as far down as 0.90 in Euro/USD. That would be around -25%
Currently the Dow is much more volatile than the Euro. The Dow just went 20% down and then 20% up in the last 7 month. Adding another 20% would mean 32.000 in the Dow, but I understand the expectation from Marty is that this doesn't seem to happen very soon.

I don't really know which one is better. I guess one has to watch the critical/major reversals and hope that Marty gives a heads up on the blog. But I also assume that there is some exclusive trading advice or hint that WEC attendees have received (e.g. which price level to watch).

@ bcho018 USDHKD peg reminds me of the swiss peg which did not end nicely for some people. -20% overnight
I assume though, that you know what your are doing...
I'm not into the peg trade thing...

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#4 | RE: Trade of the Century datum

Tue May 07, 2019 12:45 am

Farage does advise to short the Euro in his interview a few months ago.

This is the full 40+min interview where he speaks more in depth and mentions shorting the EURO - https://www.realvision.com/tv/shows/inte...ropean-populism

I would say it goes hand-in-hand with capital flight to the US$ & US equities

Leveraged inverse ETFs USD-EUR

A strong USD breaks the monetary system - Euro banks/Central Bank fails?? Short their bonds..

I used to subscribe to Larry Edelson (RIP) and he said the house of cards falling is; Europe first, then Japan and lastly USA.

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#5 | RE: Trade of the Century datum

Tue May 07, 2019 4:12 am

Zitat von Alex

@ bcho018 USDHKD peg reminds me of the swiss peg which did not end nicely for some people. -20% overnight
I assume though, that you know what your are doing...
I'm not into the peg trade thing...

Hey Alex. I am betting that if the peg break it will break in the direction of long USDHKD. That direction also happen to give +ve interest payment. Well there is also a chance Martin could be wrong about the USD and the peg never break or break in the other direction. With the leverage I use I will make 15% in USDHKD carry trade interest if I hold the long USDHKD trade for a year. My loss if my stop loss trigger is about 15% so if I manage to hold it for a year I get to hold the trade risk free. A sweet deal to me.

Use this to calculate carry trade interest earning/loss https://www.oanda.com/embed/show/interest_calc/1/?

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