General Discussion » Unpublished Elected Reversals

Recently I've noticed in SOC Pro that there are many daily reversals are shown as elected, but have actually never been published in the reversals page. In another forum I've read that this can happen, but I'm not sure why and why so often. In about 7 weeks, out of 15 daily elected reversals in one market, 8 were not published. On the weekly level 3 out of 5. They were only shown the day after they were elected. And then there are also some elected from levels that not even briefly have been touched. E.g. The price is now at 45 and traded between 43 and 45 in the last session and the reversals stands at 50. Then all of a sudden an elected reversal appears at 37 where the price not even remotely was in the last trading session(s).
I assume this is still the expected behavior, but it would still interested to know more about it. If someone finds an explanation for this it would be nice to post the link here.

Actually I would say that other indicators are also given in advance. For example other support and resistance indicators or pivot numbers (not from Socrates) are available at from other websites as well and as far as I can tell they are valid for the whole week (day, hour, etc.). e.g. investing.com weekly Pivot Points and support / resistance.
But it's also true that Socrates normally gives reversal numbers well in advance. More then just 1 day or 1 week.
I would say even an elected reversal would be forward looking because the effect it has is in the future (even though very short term published).

Either way, IMO this just means that those numbers can't be traded in reverse because they are unknown before elected. But when elected, they should also be in effect and should work like any other elected reversal (in theory...).
One can also choose to ignore those when trading reversals in reverse, but in certain situations in may not be wise to ignore elected reversals, e.g. when Reversals are close together.
I guess this is just something to keep in mind and to watch while trading (or just to watch...).
Another point is that the elected reversal table has some issues with major and minor reversals. They don't match with the table before they where elected. E.g. a major reversal stands at 50 and once elected, it becomes a minor reversal in the elected reversals table. And also vice versa. A previously minor reversal will appear as a major elected reversal.
So there is certainly a bug present in the elected reversals table related to minor/major reversals and then the question is also if those unpublished reversals are also just a bug. Maybe also something to clarify with Socrates support...
And there is this banner in Socrates that warn of "discrepancies" and maybe this falls into that category.

one more observation with daily reversals. It has happened that a unpublished reversal (say 10,12) was elected on , say April 1th. Then this shows up in the elected reversals table on April 2th. Since there was no further reversal elected on April 3th, it this elected reversal of 10,12 should still show up in the elected reversal table. However, , this 10.12 reversal has just disappeared from the table and doesn't reappear. This is a strange behavior and I'm not sure what to think about it. Does it really count as elected? Was it just a data glitch and doesn't count?
So far I've noticed this only once, so it seems to be a rare occurrence.
Update: 2 more elected weekly reversals found which have turned from minor to major in the elected (!) reversal table. From one week to the other. But actually problems with this table were already mentioned above.

Zitat von entran30

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I have also noticed that in the Premium analysis of the Dow, Socrates gives a bearish reversal number which is not in the reversals list of the trader level...

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Do you mean the Dashboard of the premium analysis?
There you have the reversals widget table with reversals and in the analysis text there are also reversals.
I found the reversals have in the analysis text have always matched with the reversals in the "REVERSALS" tab (next to FORECAST ARRAYS / COMPARE tab). So if you are in doubt, I would recommend to check with the "REVERSALS" tab. Or even better, always check the REVERSALS tab instead of the widget in the DASHBOARD because you'd also want to know if a reversal was elected (published or unpublished).

And one more time I've noticed that several unpublished elected reversals (weekly) appear in the table just to disappear a few days later. It's still rare that this happens though.

interesting. And it is not only 1 that is missing, but 4 reversals are missing.
It looks like the ASCII based reversal table is the most complete in this case.
The ASCII based table is in the Dashboard commentary, right above the ENERGY MODELS paragraph , where it says " Looking at our Energy Models on the Daily Level...."

Wow, 4 missing reversals is quite a thing. I always relied on the REVERSALS tab. I got to check the "unpublished" reversals. Maybe I'll find them in the ASCII table .

Thanks Magnus. Good to know.

I've read in another forum that those unannounced, elected reversals are generated from a low or high on the same day and also elected on the same day and this makes absolute sense to me.
I guess that intraday availability of reversals would make them visible during the day. Armstrong has this in plan, but lets see how many years this will take [rolling_eyes]