Stock Market » Dow forecast

from the Bitcoin Forum

Here is a look at the DOW.

MA's recent post stated, "When we look at the Dow Jones, here too we failed to exceed the Weekly Bullish at 17750 after reaching only 17648. Last week’s closing was 17602 and a lower closing today will warn that the advance is starting to fizzle out. We have not been able to exceed the downtrend line technically. A closing below 17124 would be an outright sell signal."

Interesting to note the weekly array he posted on March 11 showed a panic cycle for 03/21 (IMO this didn't play out) and also a directional change for the week of 03/28 with the highest 'Composite bar" of the weekly array for 03/28.

Likely we should see a decrease in the DOW into next week based on overhead resistance, a lower weekly close than last week, and MAs array.

Chart of the DOW showing MA's numbers...


http://i.imgur.com/mLcI5QO.jpg

I'd also say that the Dow should move lower this week.
This week is a turning point in the Array, so we probably make a new high but then move lower.

Also there still is a monthly bullish at 16934 that was NOT elected. I assume that it means the Dow should come down below that number by the end of the month, isn't it?

it looks like the yellen speech is a non-event for the Dow, although it might be a bit too early to draw this conclusion.

Since there is another monthly bullish at 17800, I guess 16934 monthly bullish is already invalid because the Dow is already near the 17800. So maybe there is no need to come down below 16934 anymore.
I've not seen a quarterly number for the Dow yet. Hopefully he will post it on the blog....,

Martin wrote on March 1th:

Zitat

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The failure of the Dow to close above 16973 for the end of February does not rule out pressing higher into March, but it warns this is not likely to be sustainable 01.03

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I would be curious to know how Martin came to the conclusion that the Dow would continue go up, even though the monthly bullish reversal was not elected by the end of February. If the Dow went up 1-2% for 1-2 weeks and then back down again, that would be reasonable, I'd say. But now the Dow went straight to the next monthly bullish! I don't know, maybe I'm missing something here or it's just one of these very rare occasions where reversals don't work as expected.
I wonder if you have an opinion on this?

Martin warned that capital would seek for a safe haven in the USD and the Dow, but on the expense of a reversal not working properly?

Zitat von PSP

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I will have to look back at MA's posts.

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Thanks, but please don't invest much time in this. It's not that important. I find it very difficult to find specific information on Martins blog anyway....

If the Dow closes above 17800, then it's clearly a revert to a long position, I'd say.
If not, then it should be a short, because it couldn’t break the resistance, right?
If the Dow closes between 17750 and 17800, then I guess the resistance of 17800 takes precedence over the election of the weekly bullish 17750. Especially if the reversals are so close together. This is what I found studying the Gold Reversals.

Zitat von PSP

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Interesting action around the 17750 again today

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That is standard behaviour with Martins reversals . I noticed that many, many times already.

It seems to me as if the weak USD would help pushing up the Dow. The Euro is near a major bearish weekly reversal at the moment and it may provide resistance. My guess is that if the Euro turns south, the USD will go up again and this might probably be a turning point for the Dow as well.

In my view the 17750 weekly bullish is already invalid because of the monthly bullish that is just above. So even if we close above 17750 today, I don't expect that the weekly bullish would have an effect. On the other hand, the failure for the Dow to close above the monthly bullish 17800 does not rule out pressing higher into April...

Zitat von PSP

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I need to search his site for an array of the DOW. I don't think he has posted one recently?

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There are some here - 2 weeks ago.

Zitat

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Martin wrote on March 1th:
The failure of the Dow to close above 16973 for the end of February does not rule out pressing higher into March, but it warns this is not likely to be sustainable 01.03

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I should have read further on that snipped Martin wrote. He did also wrote that 17800 is the more significant number to watch.
I can only assume that the 16973 was a minor bearish reversal and the 17800 is a major bearish. But it still doesn't explains why the minor bearish reversal didn't provide resistance during the month march.