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#1 RE: Dow forecast by Alex 29.03.2016 16:37

from the Bitcoin Forum

Here is a look at the DOW.

MA's recent post stated, "When we look at the Dow Jones, here too we failed to exceed the Weekly Bullish at 17750 after reaching only 17648. Last week’s closing was 17602 and a lower closing today will warn that the advance is starting to fizzle out. We have not been able to exceed the downtrend line technically. A closing below 17124 would be an outright sell signal."

Interesting to note the weekly array he posted on March 11 showed a panic cycle for 03/21 (IMO this didn't play out) and also a directional change for the week of 03/28 with the highest 'Composite bar" of the weekly array for 03/28.

Likely we should see a decrease in the DOW into next week based on overhead resistance, a lower weekly close than last week, and MAs array.

Chart of the DOW showing MA's numbers...


http://i.imgur.com/mLcI5QO.jpg

#2 RE: Dow forecast by Alex 29.03.2016 16:47

I'd also say that the Dow should move lower this week.
This week is a turning point in the Array, so we probably make a new high but then move lower.

Also there still is a monthly bullish at 16934 that was NOT elected. I assume that it means the Dow should come down below that number by the end of the month, isn't it?

#3 RE: Dow forecast by PSP 29.03.2016 17:26

Yes, Armstrong has discussed that a weekly close above 17750 would be Bullish and a 17124 would be a sell signal. This is an interesting week as we have the first quarter close. Also, Yellen will speak today at 12pm EST.

ON March 28, 2016 Armstrong posted, "We have had a few FED speakers recently alluding to an April rate increase so the market will listen with bated breadth as Yellen speaks tomorrow on economic and monetary policy."

Here is an updated chart 30 minutes before the Fed:

#4 RE: Dow forecast by PSP 29.03.2016 20:39

Well, Yellen did her thing with some more 'Dovish' comments. It was expected that she would have been "Hawkish" but that wasn't the case. We spiked higher, sold a bit and have drifted higher. Should be an interesting close as we approach a downtrend line indicated in green, Quarter end. It will be interesting to see Armstrong's reaction to the Feds lack of action and focus on international concerns.

I will be taking a short position closer to the trend line and watch the week end close carefully

PSP

#5 RE: Dow forecast by Alex 29.03.2016 20:44

it looks like the yellen speech is a non-event for the Dow, although it might be a bit too early to draw this conclusion.

Since there is another monthly bullish at 17800, I guess 16934 monthly bullish is already invalid because the Dow is already near the 17800. So maybe there is no need to come down below 16934 anymore.
I've not seen a quarterly number for the Dow yet. Hopefully he will post it on the blog....,

#6 RE: Dow forecast by PSP 29.03.2016 23:54

Hey Alex,

Yes, we will see how this week plays out and as the Q1 ends. The /es futures did rocket this afternoon however. We are pressing right up against some resistance on the DOW. I added to a small short position today and will close it by week end if the market doesn't turn. The market will let me know fairly quickly I would think. As Armstrong says the numbers don't lie.

#7 RE: Dow forecast by Alex 30.03.2016 16:08

Martin wrote on March 1th:

Zitat
The failure of the Dow to close above 16973 for the end of February does not rule out pressing higher into March, but it warns this is not likely to be sustainable 01.03



I would be curious to know how Martin came to the conclusion that the Dow would continue go up, even though the monthly bullish reversal was not elected by the end of February. If the Dow went up 1-2% for 1-2 weeks and then back down again, that would be reasonable, I'd say. But now the Dow went straight to the next monthly bullish! I don't know, maybe I'm missing something here or it's just one of these very rare occasions where reversals don't work as expected.
I wonder if you have an opinion on this?

Martin warned that capital would seek for a safe haven in the USD and the Dow, but on the expense of a reversal not working properly?

#8 RE: Dow forecast by PSP 30.03.2016 19:08

I will have to look back at MA's posts.

I am really focussed on the DOW's 17750 number that we went above today but currently are now below. Quarter end; month; weekend end ... this seems like a very important number. Today and tomorrow will tell the story I presume.

PSP

#9 RE: Dow forecast by Alex 30.03.2016 20:31

Zitat von PSP
I will have to look back at MA's posts.


Thanks, but please don't invest much time in this. It's not that important. I find it very difficult to find specific information on Martins blog anyway....

If the Dow closes above 17800, then it's clearly a revert to a long position, I'd say.
If not, then it should be a short, because it couldn’t break the resistance, right?
If the Dow closes between 17750 and 17800, then I guess the resistance of 17800 takes precedence over the election of the weekly bullish 17750. Especially if the reversals are so close together. This is what I found studying the Gold Reversals.

#10 RE: Dow forecast by PSP 31.03.2016 03:37

Yup no worries - I find it a bit tricky on his blog as well and find he speaks in riddles some times. But I consider some of this my homework as well haha

Interesting price action around 17750 today. I did some day trades around that number with some winners and some losers.

#11 RE: Dow forecast by PSP 31.03.2016 22:30

Interesting action around the 17750 again today

#12 RE: Dow forecast by Alex 01.04.2016 08:19

Zitat von PSP

Interesting action around the 17750 again today



That is standard behaviour with Martins reversals . I noticed that many, many times already.

It seems to me as if the weak USD would help pushing up the Dow. The Euro is near a major bearish weekly reversal at the moment and it may provide resistance. My guess is that if the Euro turns south, the USD will go up again and this might probably be a turning point for the Dow as well.

In my view the 17750 weekly bullish is already invalid because of the monthly bullish that is just above. So even if we close above 17750 today, I don't expect that the weekly bullish would have an effect. On the other hand, the failure for the Dow to close above the monthly bullish 17800 does not rule out pressing higher into April...

#13 RE: Dow forecast by PSP 01.04.2016 15:56

Well I took some profits on the short I had. What a great move down over night. Martin had an interesting post today about how the DOW and how it has already started to show the move up based on foreign investment in the USA.

I need to search his site for an array of the DOW. I don't think he has posted one recently?

#14 RE: Dow forecast by Alex 01.04.2016 17:23

Zitat von PSP
I need to search his site for an array of the DOW. I don't think he has posted one recently?



There are some here - 2 weeks ago.

#15 RE: Dow forecast by Alex 05.04.2016 14:34

Zitat
Martin wrote on March 1th:
The failure of the Dow to close above 16973 for the end of February does not rule out pressing higher into March, but it warns this is not likely to be sustainable 01.03




I should have read further on that snipped Martin wrote. He did also wrote that 17800 is the more significant number to watch.
I can only assume that the 16973 was a minor bearish reversal and the 17800 is a major bearish. But it still doesn't explains why the minor bearish reversal didn't provide resistance during the month march.

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