Energy » Oil - reaction or rally? week April 4th

Oil has the potential to rally into May since it didn't close below 35.xx in March. This is according to Martins Blog. What do you think, is the rise in price from yesterday and today only a reaction?
I would say that if Oil closes today and tomorrow higher, there could be a good chance that the low has been made yesterday. If it turns back down, then I guess the next target area is the monthly bearish at 33.30.
Martin talks below about weekly bearish reversals in Oil, but I've not seen any such numbers published. Have you seen any?
Thanks.


17.3 on his Blog:

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if we at least close March above the February high of 34.69, then we have a shot of more than a one-month knee-jerk reaction high. Then we can look for a possible 3 month rally into May. The two primary target at the $45 and $49 level. That has to be exceeded to hope for an rally to reach the formidable resistance zone in the $69-$70 area.

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April has been a panic cycle in many markets as well.

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24.3

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The next key area to watch will be the 3400 level.
Overall, we are looking to May to provide the next turning point. So pay attention. If we start to elect bearish reversals on the weekly level, we may indeed see a decline unfold.

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This is how Martin has drawn the down trend line: -----------------------------------------------------------------------------my daily trend line

It appears to me that that was a good time to buy oil.

So now I expect that oil may correct to 41.25 (yearly resistance) or 39.85 (old daily bullish) or the 38.40 (old weekly bullish) before it continues the rally into May (maybe to the 45$ area / weekly bullish).
I would say the 38.40 is too far away to become the temp low.

it looks like weekly bullish have been elected. MA wrote on March 17th

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major Weekly Bullish Reversals we have warned about stand up at the $45 level 17.3

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and

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The two primary target at the $45 and $49 level.

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I would feel more comfortable if I knew the exact number though. Have I overlooked them?

When the 38.40 weekly bullish was elected in March, oil corrected 6% before it went up again. I assume this time there will be also a correction to the uptrend line at ~45.10. If that doesn't hold, then the next target is ~42.50 and 41 level. 41 seems to be unlikely to me (that would be 9% down).
Thanks.

Hi Digilab,

Zitat von DigiLab

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In the last month have been following the metals market, and man that's been a real battlefield, quite amazing.

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yes, it's amazing how well MA's numbers have defined the neutral /sideways channel.

Zitat von DigiLab

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Is someone already playing on the oil market, and can maybe briefly share an opinion?

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my 2 cents on oil:

May is the turning point. i.e. it should be a high. Maybe last week was it, or a new high will be generated this week and thereafter a correction might be coming.

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MA: The two primary target at the $45 and $49 level. That
has to be exceeded to hope for an rally to reach the
formidable resistance zone in the $69-$70 area – 17.3.16

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Is 49$ a weekly or monthly bullish? I assume weekly, but don't know for sure.
A failure to close above 49$ this week (also month end) might be a indication that it's not moving higher for now.

note: No info provided from MA on when the next turning point is or where weekly/monthly bearish or bullish are or where technical support / resistance stands (according to MA). I assume tech resistance for this week stands at 50.50$ (the green uptrend line) to 51$ (October high).

My conclusion: Unless Oil closes above 49$ this week, it might start a correction this week, at least into June (or where ever the next monthy turning point might be). This would line up with the Stock markets, which move slightly down or churning. Otherwise, will it move up to 69?!? Maybe Martin gives us his view by the end of this week.

weekly chart

Thanks for the info on fundamentals. One more interesting point might be production cost for US shale which comes into play with prices above $50-60. Although I'm not sure this will effect prices near term ( 1-2 month ahead).

re. 45/49 numbers: In March Martin wrote this:

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major Weekly Bullish Reversals we have warned about stand up at the $45 level

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That led me to believe that the $49 could also be a reversal number.

Then there is still the turning point from the array for May which should be a high in May, i.e. moving down in June