#1 RE: Oil - reaction or rally? week April 4th by Alex 06.04.2016 12:08

Oil has the potential to rally into May since it didn't close below 35.xx in March. This is according to Martins Blog. What do you think, is the rise in price from yesterday and today only a reaction?
I would say that if Oil closes today and tomorrow higher, there could be a good chance that the low has been made yesterday. If it turns back down, then I guess the next target area is the monthly bearish at 33.30.
Martin talks below about weekly bearish reversals in Oil, but I've not seen any such numbers published. Have you seen any?
Thanks.


17.3 on his Blog:

Zitat
if we at least close March above the February high of 34.69, then we have a shot of more than a one-month knee-jerk reaction high. Then we can look for a possible 3 month rally into May. The two primary target at the $45 and $49 level. That has to be exceeded to hope for an rally to reach the formidable resistance zone in the $69-$70 area.



Zitat
April has been a panic cycle in many markets as well.



24.3

Zitat
The next key area to watch will be the 3400 level.
Overall, we are looking to May to provide the next turning point. So pay attention. If we start to elect bearish reversals on the weekly level, we may indeed see a decline unfold.



This is how Martin has drawn the down trend line: -----------------------------------------------------------------------------my daily trend line

#2 RE: Oil - reaction or rally? week April 4th by DigiLab 06.04.2016 15:29

Good thinking to bring oil into the equation. Useful information put out by MA and you sum it up pretty nicely.
So, interpreting it, since for March it did close above 34.69, more than a one-month knee-jerk reaction high is to be expected. If this rally within the 3 months reaches $45 and then $49 levels, then it will proceed going up. If not, then it will turn down.

#3 RE: Oil - reaction or rally? week April 4th by Alex 14.04.2016 09:31

It appears to me that that was a good time to buy oil.

So now I expect that oil may correct to 41.25 (yearly resistance) or 39.85 (old daily bullish) or the 38.40 (old weekly bullish) before it continues the rally into May (maybe to the 45$ area / weekly bullish).
I would say the 38.40 is too far away to become the temp low.

#4 RE: Oil - reaction or rally? week April 4th by Alex 02.05.2016 12:57

it looks like weekly bullish have been elected. MA wrote on March 17th

Zitat
major Weekly Bullish Reversals we have warned about stand up at the $45 level 17.3


and

Zitat
The two primary target at the $45 and $49 level.



I would feel more comfortable if I knew the exact number though. Have I overlooked them?

When the 38.40 weekly bullish was elected in March, oil corrected 6% before it went up again. I assume this time there will be also a correction to the uptrend line at ~45.10. If that doesn't hold, then the next target is ~42.50 and 41 level. 41 seems to be unlikely to me (that would be 9% down).
Thanks.

#5 RE: Oil - reaction or rally? week April 4th by DigiLab 21.05.2016 01:26

In the last month have been following the metals market, and man that's been a real battlefield, quite amazing. There have been ups and downs, and if it wasn't for MA on the sideline (providing his updates on the private blog), I can not imagine how one who is not really experienced can go through it. Anyhow, today I decided to take same profit and focus to some other markets. Eyeing the oil market, as I did notice that $49 level has been breached intraday, but still closing is below it.
Is someone already playing on the oil market, and can maybe briefly share an opinion?

I'm looking forward to the trader level of Socrates, but in addition to MA, I'm thinking to do some reading on Gann. Is someone maybe familiar with Gann?

#6 RE: Oil - reaction or rally? week April 4th by Alex 23.05.2016 18:04

Hi Digilab,

Zitat von DigiLab

In the last month have been following the metals market, and man that's been a real battlefield, quite amazing.



yes, it's amazing how well MA's numbers have defined the neutral /sideways channel.

Zitat von DigiLab
Is someone already playing on the oil market, and can maybe briefly share an opinion?



my 2 cents on oil:

May is the turning point. i.e. it should be a high. Maybe last week was it, or a new high will be generated this week and thereafter a correction might be coming.

Zitat
MA: The two primary target at the $45 and $49 level. That
has to be exceeded to hope for an rally to reach the
formidable resistance zone in the $69-$70 area – 17.3.16



Is 49$ a weekly or monthly bullish? I assume weekly, but don't know for sure.
A failure to close above 49$ this week (also month end) might be a indication that it's not moving higher for now.

note: No info provided from MA on when the next turning point is or where weekly/monthly bearish or bullish are or where technical support / resistance stands (according to MA). I assume tech resistance for this week stands at 50.50$ (the green uptrend line) to 51$ (October high).

My conclusion: Unless Oil closes above 49$ this week, it might start a correction this week, at least into June (or where ever the next monthy turning point might be). This would line up with the Stock markets, which move slightly down or churning. Otherwise, will it move up to 69?!? Maybe Martin gives us his view by the end of this week.

weekly chart

#7 RE: Oil - reaction or rally? week April 4th by DigiLab 24.05.2016 01:37

Hello Alex,

Thank you for the information provided. In order to reply, I did look into the oil further. So, here is what I think.
The $45 and $49 levels provided by MA are technical, not bullish reversals, daily, weekly or monthly.
Oil has the latest mid week of June 6th to have a closing above 49$ in order to at least stay on that level in near term. Lack of war, I don't see how oil can reach $70 area. One reason being strong USD. What helped the oil to reach this level (and actually metals not to bottom, yet) was the FED. Their dovish statements and moving to 2 rate hikes (instead of 4 originally announced). But, last week FEDs finally came hawkish, leaving the June rate hike on the table. That send USD Index higher, and if the rate hike in June happens, it will go even higher.

That's one scenario though. If FEDs don't raise the rate in June, then likely oil can try to reach the $70 area. Still though, it would be quite difficult, since another reason which don't favours that is the oil glut.

#8 RE: Oil - reaction or rally? week April 4th by Alex 27.05.2016 12:09

Thanks for the info on fundamentals. One more interesting point might be production cost for US shale which comes into play with prices above $50-60. Although I'm not sure this will effect prices near term ( 1-2 month ahead).

re. 45/49 numbers: In March Martin wrote this:

Zitat
major Weekly Bullish Reversals we have warned about stand up at the $45 level


That led me to believe that the $49 could also be a reversal number.

Then there is still the turning point from the array for May which should be a high in May, i.e. moving down in June


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