#1 RE: DOW week of April 4, 2016 by PSP 01.04.2016 22:37

Armstrong wrote the following on April 1, 2016

April 1, 2016

In the Dow, we have a cluster of Weekly Bullish Reversals starting at 17680, 17750, and 17846. You will notice that the top of the Downtrend Line stands at 17651.03. It appears that the Dow should create a temp high and we have a Directional Change Next Week. A closing today BELOW 17420 should signal a drop to retest support. I would expect a follow through to the upside only if we close above 17856 level.
It appears that it is still in a consolidation phase, but it is obviously firming up. There is a potential to break out to the upside with a closing above 17846 today, but that may not be instantaneous. Closing above 17750 may see some follow through into next week, but it would not likely be sustained. Closing above 17856 would imply that the Downtrend Line might start to provide support for any retest. That pattern would warn that we could make new highs and then pull back. This would clearly put a lot of pressure on the Federal Reserve to focus on domestic policy objectives.

http://i.imgur.com/l3ZW2UX.jpg
admin: (image removed, replaced with link)

Looks like there is a directional change this coming week. MA discussed the possibility of a little more upside as we have closed the week above 17750.

I will look at Shorting the DOW early next week as we approach the 17856 level.

http://i.imgur.com/l3ZW2UX.jpg
admin: (image removed, replaced with link)

#2 RE: DOW week of April 4, 2016 by DigiLab 02.04.2016 16:43

PSP, I send you a PM.

#3 RE: DOW week of April 4, 2016 by PSP 02.04.2016 17:54

Zitat von DigiLab

PSP, I send you a PM.



Yes thank you. I have gone back to look at his help videos and info about arrays.

A couple of things to note.

The Directional Change can at times be the beginning of a breakout to a new trading level (major thrust) in one direction which the market is making a break to a new plateau in price movement up or down. However, at other times, Directional Changes can mark the high or low and the culmination of a trend.

Also, the empirical bar can represent the benchmarks. we see this appear on the week of the 11th and 25th

So the next few weeks should be interesting.

Usually when I build a position I never go all in 100%, but rather slowly build a position over time. Even with Armstrong's info I find it very hard to pick tops and bottoms without his benchmark numbers.

It is great to have this forum as it is helping me see other perspectives on how to view Armstrong's posts and information.

The more minds the better:)

#4 RE: DOW week of April 4, 2016 by PSP 04.04.2016 23:03

No trades for me today. Just in cash as far as the DOW goes. Waiting to see which direction we move this week. My understanding is up a bit then a reverse. -55 on the DOW today. A close at 17,737 didn't tell me much.

#5 RE: DOW week of April 4, 2016 by PSP 07.04.2016 02:29

some areas to watch based on MA's recent DOW post

#6 RE: DOW week of April 4, 2016 by Alex 07.04.2016 10:49

and trend / technical support according to Martins charts. Daily 04/06, weekly 3/28 and monthly 04/06, all in one chart but on the daily level.


#7 RE: DOW week of April 4, 2016 by Alex 07.04.2016 22:19

today the DOW came 0.29% to the daily bearish 17434. I guess this can be counted as a retest, right?
If yes, then the DOW would now revisit resistance (according to Martin) because the daily bearish has not been not elected.
Resistance should be 17750 - 17800.

#8 RE: DOW week of April 4, 2016 by PSP 08.04.2016 05:29

Zitat von Alex

today the DOW came 0.29% to the daily bearish 17434. I guess this can be counted as a retest, right?
If yes, then the DOW would now revisit resistance (according to Martin) because the daily bearish has not been not elected.
Resistance should be 17750 - 17800.



At this point yes. MA posted:

So support now lies at 17434 and 17120. Daily closings below these numbers will signal a near-term correction. Holding 17434 on a closing basis in any retest of support signals a revisit of the resistance. Only a weekly closing above 17846 will signal a retest of the major high. Do not expect a breakout until 2017.

The 'resistance' Armstrong is talking about I am a bit confused by...

Downtrend lines of course offer resistance and we have one overhead at this point but we have sliced through it like a hot knife through butter in the last 3 trading days like it wasn't there. (down up down)

MA spoke of a cluster of Weekly Bullish Reversals starting at 17680, 17750, and 17846.

I feel we are a little bit in no mans land right now. He did call for a choppy session. tomorrow's close I hope gives a more clear picture.

On the array the composite bar picks up next week. I'm curious if that is a continuation of this weeks move. MA has stated, "They do not reflect direction, but changes in trend."

Also note the empirical bar (the empirical is the set wavelength bar that has been know to mark benchmarks - as he stated in his video explaining some of the arrays)

#9 RE: DOW week of April 4, 2016 by Alex 08.04.2016 09:14

Zitat von PSP
MA spoke of a cluster of Weekly Bullish Reversals starting at 17680, 17750, and 17846.



It looks like the 17680 is new (although already elected). In my records Martin wrote this on April 1th.

Zitat
The Dow we have actually a cluster of Weekly Bullish starting at 17750 and 17846. You will notice that the top of the Downtrend Line stands at 17651.03.



It looks like this has been corrected after April 1th. So it's great that you noticed this. Thanks.
I forgot about the 17651, thanks also for reminding me.

Bloomberg reported that there are lots of shorts in the DOW, much more then normally (8 year high) and that may potentially cause a short squeeze.
Others point out that some of those shorts may be for securing positions. Time ( and reversals) will tell...

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