#1 RE: directions - sideways vs. neutral by Alex 31.03.2016 16:56

recently Martin mentioned on his blog that Gold may close either sideways directed or neutral.
What is the difference?
Does sideways mean definitely sideways and neutral means that there is still up-and downside potential? I thought that both is the same.
Thanks

#2 RE: directions - sideways vs. neutral by PSP 31.03.2016 22:22

I was very confused by that as well. I think he should give some clarification as we are at the end of Q1

#3 RE: directions - sideways vs. neutral by DigiLab 01.04.2016 18:13

Hello Guys,

At this time period I'm quite busy with my regular work (engineering) and don't have much time available. So, although there is much to tell, I'll address some points which are important at this moment.

Yesterday I found some extra time and used it to further try to understand MA's modelling. I don't know to which extent you guys are familiar with his modelling, but I'm starting to have a good understanding of what his modelling is about, and how to interpret it. FYI, I have no trading experience whatsoever, and other from MA's modelling I'm not familiar with other types of modelling for the market behavior.
So, it's only MA so far, and I'm quite impressed by his work. The way I see his modelling is to primarily give one a better feel of the market movements, which will result with gaining higher confidence before making the decisions. Secondary, he is also providing numbers for one to have a better insight, which also goes back to the decision making. But, MA is releasing publicly just some of these numbers, which is totally understandable. Since those numbers are being fully released only to his clients.

About the Gold, sideways vs. neutral. First, I don't know when (which writing) MA differentiated these two on his blog. Second, my understanding of what MA is maybe trying to say is that in essence they both kind of overlap, but not fully, and there is a subtle difference. If it's sideways, there is still energy (more on the bullish side vs. the bearish, but not by much difference) that will allow sideways trading, meaning having a bigger swings. If it's neutral, then energy is being equally distributed (bullish vs. bearish), and still there will be sideways trading, but with lower swings. Nevertheless, taking into consideration MA's modelling, and also understanding of the market (human) behaviour, one can assume where they both (sideways and neutral) lead, for this market (Gold), at this point of time. One difference will be in time of things unfolding, other how they actually unfold.
In order to have a better understanding of the above, one should imagine how it feels to be in both positions (bullish and bearish), and not considering only the position that one has decided to take.

This week when I took the short position on Gold, I had a different idea. But putting the actual money made me follow and look at the market behavior, and with that provided me deeper understanding and feel for it. I guess it can be understood as putting theory into practice. Watching the 20$ swings and realizing that actually not a bad money can be made on those, gave me an idea of using a different approach. The confirmation to change the approach actually came from MA, more particularly from what you guys are questioning here (neutral vs. sideways per MA).

So, let's look at the facts. Indication of the quarterly close for Gold is that in a near term it will continue to trade sideways. That's a very important fact.
Further, what is needed is identifying the resistance and support points. For this actually MA is not required, since a technical analysis can do as well. I don't know yet how to do this, so if someone skilled and experienced in that portion can come up with some numbers would be great.
And to add to this, there is portion where MA is required, and that is the reversals. We have to see what MA has published so far on the reversals, and work with that. Since we know what happens, or more precisely where that leads, when the reversal is being chosen. It's about behavior of market in order to anticipate where it will move next and in what fashion will do that.

I guess it can be already assumed what the other trading strategy would be. And within that strategy there is more to add, but to get started, first we need some numbers. The resistance/support, and also whatever is available from reversals that MA is providing. As a confirmation to this strategy, other than number at which Gold closed quarterly, per latest MA monthly Gold timing array, the volatility is rising in April. Do not look at the absolute value of the bar, but look at the difference between the bars for different months.
Accordingly, this maybe should be continued in the "End of Q1 - GOLD" discussion.

Alex, now I guess you can assume one of the reasons why I am thinking for this forum not to be fully public. And actually as you mentioned "content from the paid reports should maybe not discussed in public", which is actually very good notice.

#4 RE: directions - sideways vs. neutral by Alex 04.04.2016 20:58

Hello Digilab,

Zitat von DigiLab
Further, what is needed is identifying the resistance and support points. For this actually MA is not required, since a technical analysis can do as well. I don't know yet how to do this, so if someone skilled and experienced in that portion can come up with some numbers would be great.



I'm not highly skilled in technical analysis, but maybe this is useful anyway.
Old, already elected reversals (any time level) can still be resistance and support. The old 1209 monthly bullish still turns out to be a relevant number. There is one more number below that on the daily level, mention in the Socrates Blog. On the upside the 1225 was previously support (weekly trend) and there is 1237.50 and 1245 for resistance

1164 is the next number for support.

Martin is also frequently posting trend lines and channels and from those one can also see where technical resistance and support stands on the various time levels (day, week, month quarter)

[Chart removed]

#5 RE: directions - sideways vs. neutral by DigiLab 04.04.2016 23:02

Today was a very quiet day. That goes inline with the neutral trend per MA. Neither the sellers were giving in, nor the buyers stepping in. Most likely this week we'll be in that fashion. But something will give.
Linking it with the DOW, per MA timing arrays for Gold and DOW, the next 3 weeks should be interesting.

#6 RE: directions - sideways vs. neutral by Alex 20.04.2016 09:54

I find this article very interesting .It explains what is meant with "neutral"

How to Use the Indicating Ranges

Zitat
We refer to this tool as “Indicating Ranges” because they provide an “indication” as to a specific aspect of the market based on the markets close. The three possible indications are Negative, Neutral and Positive.

Below=Negative
Within=Neutral
Above=Positive



much more explanation here:
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/the-p...e/how-to-use-2/
and this short 5 min. video here:
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armst...ing-range-tool/

PS. 3 weeks after my first message here in this thread, the Gold market is still trapped in the neutral position, although it also moves sideways
I still don't know exactly the difference, but now I have at least a good understand of what neutral means.

#7 RE: directions - sideways vs. neutral by lakesurfer 20.04.2016 16:01

Maybe we can come up with a Martinpedia here.:D


Zitat von Alex

recently Martin mentioned on his blog that Gold may close either sideways directed or neutral.
What is the difference?
Does sideways mean definitely sideways and neutral means that there is still up-and downside potential? I thought that both is the same.
Thanks

#8 RE: directions - sideways vs. neutral by Alex 21.04.2016 10:32

Zitat von lakesurfer

Maybe we can come up with a Martinpedia here.:D



yes, why not. Good idea. If several people would contribute to a Wiki, then I would setup one.
For now, I guess we can continue to collect FAQ's and findings here in this Forum.

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