Metals » End of Q1 - GOLD

Well this week marks the end of Q1. Only two more trading days. I already have a short in Gold but my line in the sand is clear from the chart. The monthly high reached on the gold futures was 1287.80. Even if we violate the downtrend line up to this for the quarter end - I will hold the short.



Armstrong posted the following last Saturday:

"Gold bounced off the the Weekly Bullish of 1287.50 within 30 cents and on target being the week of March 14th. The oscillator is starting to crest and now we will make an important retest of support. Technically, the Downtrend Line rests at 1188.31 for this week. If gold will rally out of the Benchmarks, this is where it must hold intraday. Even penetrating this technical level will warn that it is not ready for prime time."

Nice chart to prove the short trade.



source:

http://blog.kimblechartingsolutions.com/...ce-march-18.jpg

Just started to trade, so pls bear that in mind. I took the short position on Monday, not just based on MA's numbers, but also trying to put some reasoning behind that. And today I was puzzled why the Gold went up, till later I found out about Yellen dovish speech. I didn't know that she would be talking today. Most likely I would have waited for her, and take the short after, since the thinking (and accordingly the moves) of the central banks are already relativily easy to anticipitate. I noticed that Gold went up during the terrorist attack in Brussels, but after went down. Also today went up for 20$ (not much spectacular), after Yellen's dovish speech. Let's see how tomorrow goes, maybe will add to the position.
My point is, that the rally in Gold is showing lack of energy.

Btw, nice chart. I have to learn how you did that. For following markets I installed thinkorswim, but can not trade over that. Over the broker I use I can do stocks, but for trading Gold I did it through ETF's, in this case DGLD.

I see you guys discussed DOW. I have to read on that to come up to speed. That might be next trade. We'll see what the Great Master MA has to say for the quarter close.

Edit: I noticed that you added one more chart, nice. I'll analyze them both tomorrow, since would love to understand more.

I think longer term Martin expects a greater sell off and a key time period was half way through March which my impressions were that he called it. Yes, the all important end of Q1. Anything below 1287 would be a short sell.

I think this will work this time...all I know is MA said one bounce high and then a big low. Haven't heard what recent Gold Report says now. In Canada hoping to load up my last year's top up and this years TFSAs. Holding long in PVG gold and FR silver. GLTA.

For sideway trading, converging numbers for this week so far are: resistance in the 1240 area, support in the 1220 area. The support of 1220 was breached briefly, twice, going down to the 1210 and 1214. That breaching can maybe be interpreted as showing sign of weakness (starting to crack).
For next week, are there any events taking place, or reports being published, that might affect the Gold (e.g. FED or ECB public addressing)?

MA in today's Market Talk pointed that this Wednesday FED's meeting minutes will be released. Considering Yellen's dovish stance, maybe the position should be switched briefly. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.