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#1 | RE: Dow Week of April 18 datum

Sat Apr 16, 2016 1:29 am

MA talked about the possibility of testing the highs or making new highs with a weekly close above 17846

MA has stated:

"To suggest that the major low has been made, the Dow would need to climb over the 17750 level on a weekly closing basis"

Weekly:

"From a timing perspective, we still see the key weeks ahead as 04/25 and 05/09 with volatility picking up in May and then we have a Directional Change cluster in June near the BREXIT vote."

Monthly:
"The timing clearly is showing June and August as key targets for now. This is centered around the BREXIT vote in June and the Republican Convention at the end of July. Directional changes are warning of a choppy affair until the first quarter next year.
Keep in mind that this is the most pessimistic rally in history with the highest short-interest. This is why the market keeps pushing higher, yet slowly. It is eating through the pessimistic analysis and when rates begin to rise, there will be another wave a selling trapping the bears latter in the year.
The Daily Bearish lies at 17434 and the Weekly Bearish lies at 16820. So as long as these two Reversals hold, then the basing at higher levels is being maintained."

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#2 | RE: Dow Week of April 18 datum

Sat Apr 16, 2016 9:07 pm

yes, this will be a very interesting week. Since the closing is below the 1% (above the reversal), the Dow should not struggle a lot with the 17846 (according to MA's reversal rules) and move up fairly quickly.

MA also stated the following on April 1th (I hope this wasn't a April Fool [rolling_eyes] )

Zitat
The Dow we have actually a cluster of Weekly Bullish starting at 17750 and 17846

So it seems there are additional weekly bullish above 17846 and that would imply that the move to new highs might not happen so quickly (also according to MA's reversal rules). Who knows though, it's only 2.5% left to make a new high.

I'm not sure what to do with the weekly array for the coming week. According to MA, the lowest bar on the composite can also be a turning point. That would imply a new high for next week, then a low for the week thereafter and again a new intraday high in the week of the May 9th.

I find it strange that MA didn't name next week as a turning point. In any case, I expect that the next 1-5 days the Dow would go up and make a high (temp or final). This is how elected weekly reversals often have behaved before in metals. In the Dow I have one example with the minor weekly bearish at 17065 which went down 6.5% within a single day and that was also the final low for this elected minor bearish reversal. The momentum was different back then (24.8.15), so I don't expect such a big move now though.

Today MA posted the following.

Zitat
it is interesting that many core Indices are up against some Monthly reversals so we would not be surprised if we do see a little pull-back next week

I assume that the Dow is also considered to be a core index.

One well known Wall Street commentator says that expectations on earnings for the reporting season in the Dow next week are extreme low. I.e. there is good potential to surprise the market with less worse numbers then expected and that may cause the Dow to go up.

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